Expectations were high entering the 2024 season. The Bengals missed the playoffs last year, after Burrow was lost for the season due to a wrist injury. But with the star QB back healthy and ready to go, they once again were looking to contend for a Super Bowl.
A week 1 loss to the lowly Patriots, however, was an early blip. But we could just chalk that up to the team’s usual early season struggles under Zac Taylor, right? I mean, after all, we still have Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase.
Well, Burrow and Chase have both been having career years — and that is really saying something, with how good the pair have been since entering the league. So with that in mind, it would be safe to assume that things got back on track after week 1, and the Bengals are looking to cement one of the top spots in the AFC, right? Wrong.
Despite what guys like Burrow, Chase, and even Higgins, when healthy, have been able to do, the Bengals have lost several close games. Two late game heartbreakers to the Ravens, one to the Chiefs, one to the Chargers, among others. And the defence is largely to blame. The pass rush has been non-existent, outside of Trey Hendrickson, who happens to lead the league in sacks. Cam Taylor Britt’s play has fallen off a cliff, they can’t stop the run, and now Dax Hill and DJ Turner are both out for the year. Oh, and the Bengals entered the bye with a record of 4-7, leaving the multiple games back of a playoff spot.
The AFC North? Forget about it. That is a battle between the 8-3 Steelers and the 8-4 Ravens. The Steelers have been very solid defensively, while getting through the early portion of the season with backup Justin Fields at QB. When Russell Wilson returned from injury, they went from an average looking team that was winning games, to a team that looked like they might be able to go pretty far. The Ravens, meanwhile, have had defensive struggles that approach those of the Bengals. But on the back of their run game, they have still been able to win games.
Sitting at 4-7 coming out of the bye, the Bengals take on the Steelers at home in week 13. The outcome of this game will decide what the mindset is, at least from a fan’s perspective, for the rest of the season.
A win over the Steelers gives fans some hope that they could still squeeze their way into the playoffs. It would put them at 5-7, with the Cowboys and Titans serving as their next two opponents. Both of those team’s have struggled mightily this season, and should be considered highly winnable, even with how the Bengals have struggled at times.
The Broncos, currently 7-5, are the team that the Bengals would be chasing for that final playoff spot. If the Bengals get through week 13 with a win over Pittsburgh, win the games they should against the Cowboys and Titans, and then beat the banged up Cleveland Browns in week 16, they would enter their week 17 matchup against the Broncos with an 8-7 record.
Denver’s remaining schedule, meanwhile, includes the Colts, Chargers, and Chiefs. It is certainly reasonable to say that they could lose a couple of those games. If they do, and the Bengals do their job in week 17, their week 18 matchup against the Steelers could be a “win and you’re in” scenario.
I know what you’re thinking… how likely is it that they run the table? It would certainly be tough, especially given the state of the defence. So let’s look at the other side of things.
Let’s say that the Bengals lose to the Steelers in week 13. Dropping to 4-8 means that it’s game over. But in the NFL, there is always one thing or another at stake each week. In this scenario, it is their draft position.
Things are relatively tight in the playoff race, but just as tight on the other side of the standings. The Bengals currently have 4 wins, and are joined by the Saints, Cowboys, and Bears. Four teams have 5 wins, while the Patriots, Panthers, Titans, Jets, and Browns all have 3 wins. Three teams have 2 wins.
The 4-7 Bengals currently hold the 10th overall draft pick, while the 3-9 Patriots hold the 4th overall pick. And over the course of the remaining part of the season, the Bengals play the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns. If a few losses are strung together after a hypothetical loss to the Steelers, a top 5 pick is not out of the realm of possibility. With options which would include adding an elite prospect, or trading down to stockpile picks, a top 5 pick would certainly be a huge boost for the future of the franchise.
As the Bengals exit their bye week, the playoffs or a high draft pick are both possibilities. And the result at home against the Steelers in week 13 will tell us which direction to go. A win, and the playoff push in on. A loss, and draft season officially begins.
