The Bengals were officially eliminated from playoff contention following last week’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. With one week remaining in the season, there are different perspectives from which to view the game against the Cleveland Browns. From one point of view, you could look for the team to go all out for the win, with a focus on building some momentum to take into next season. However, how much momentum really gets brought over from a meaningless late season win? History would suggest little to none.
Another, more logical, way to look at this game is from the perspective of the NFL Draft. Since the Bengals are eliminated and the season is over, a loss, in theory, helps the Bengals more. It would improve their draft position compared to a win, which would drop them down. And given the large number of teams bunched together in the standings, a win or loss in week 18 can make a big difference. Let’s take a look at it.
Below are all the teams that are relevant to the Bengals situation, heading into week 18, as well as the opponent that they will be facing:
Entering week 18, there are 11 teams with either the same amount, one less, or one more win than the Bengals, and whose results can still have an impact. Given that strength of schedule is the first tie breaker when determining the order of the draft, the Bengals would pick lower than any team they are tied with, since theirs, at .581, is the highest in the NFL.
First, we’ll look at it with the assumption that the Bengals lose their season finale, finishing with a record of 8-9. In this case, the teams entering the week at 9-7 are no longer relevant, and the list of teams to monitor is down from 11 to 7. We’ll start out with the simple stuff. In this scenario, if the 8-win teams win another to get to 9, the Bengals would pick ahead of all of them. The Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Packers, and Broncos. The only way that Cincinnati can pick ahead of the Falcons is if Atlanta wins their division, which would mean winning their season finale, and having the Saints and Buccaneers both lose.
If the week isn’t as simple, and some of those teams lose, the playoff picture will help determine the draft order. The Falcons can only make it by winning their division. However, the Seahawks, Saints (if they don’t win their division), and Vikings are all chasing the Packers for the final Wildcard spot in the NFC. Whichever one of those teams that is able to claim that spot will automatically pick behind the Bengals. Of the rest that don’t, they will need to finish with at least 9 wins to pick behind the Bengals. So this means that if the Vikings, who currently sit at 7-9, manage to squeak into the playoffs at 8-9, it would imply that the Saints (or Bucs), Seahawks, and Packers all lost, and would pick ahead of the Bengals.
The lone other AFC team currently at 8-8 is the Denver Broncos, who have already been eliminated from playoff contention. It would take them beating the Raiders, and a Bengals loss to the Browns for the Bengals to pick ahead of them in the draft.
Looking now at the AFC playoff picture. There are still two spots up for grabs, but the 10-6 Bills, who are currently the 6 seed, cannot pick above the Bengals, regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs. So that means we are down to the Colts, Texans, Jaguars, and Steelers. All of these teams are currently 9-7, which means that this conversation is only relevant if the Bengals beat the Browns on Sunday. In this scenario, it would also make the ones discussed previously irrelevant, as the Bengals, at 9-8, would pick lower than all of those other teams.
But let’s say that the Bengals do win on Sunday. Their pick would obviously be a lot lower, but out of town games will still make a difference. One of the Colts or Texans will lose, barring the unlikely event of a tie, since they play each other. This means that one of the AFC South teams is likely to miss the playoffs at 9-8, and would therefore pick ahead of the Bengals.
Of these four teams, no more than two of them can pick ahead of the Bengals, since there are two playoff spots up for grabs. Now, the Jaguars, Texans, and Colts, are all fighting for their division, with the losers of that battle also fighting the Steelers to claim a Wildcard spot. Whichever of these two teams that miss the playoffs will be the ones to watch.
Unless Houston and Indianapolis tie, one of them will be on the outside looking in. If the Jaguars lose, the Steelers would get in with a win, while both the Jags and the loser of IND vs HOU would miss out at 9-7, meaning both pick ahead of the Bengals. Ultimately, if the Bengals win on Sunday, they will be picking ahead of at least two of these teams, and, barring a tie in Houston vs Indianapolis, cannot pick ahead of all four. But if the best team to miss the playoffs finishes with 10 wins, the Bengals can still pick ahead of three out of the four.
Featured Image Via: Erik Drost (CC)